The most popular view on the development prospect

2022-07-28
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From the perspective of national planning, distributed photovoltaic development prospects

distributed photovoltaic power generation refers to the photovoltaic power generation facilities that are built and operated at or near the user's site, mainly for the user's spontaneous self-use, in excess of electricity, and balanced and adjusted in the distribution system. The state has been actively encouraging the distributed photovoltaic power generation system and has issued a series of supporting measures. In particular, the 13th five year plan for power development issued at the end of last year set an unconventional development goal for distributed PV: "by 2020, the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach more than 110million kW, and the installed capacity of distributed PV will reach more than 60million kW". Various signs show that distributed PV, especially household distributed PV, is about to usher in a period of rapid development opportunities

I. the development of distributed PV has been accelerated, but there is still a big gap between computers and developed countries.

over the years, the country has issued a series of policies to build domestic PV power stations in order to reduce the impact of the European and American anti photovoltaic policies on Chinese enterprises. Although this policy has effectively solved the problem of excess capacity of PV modules, it has led to the extraordinary development of China's solar power plants, while the development of distributed PV is slow and the proportion is seriously unbalanced

at the same time, compared with developed countries, the proportion of distributed photovoltaic in China is seriously low. The proportion of distributed photovoltaic in foreign countries is about 80% in Germany, and about 50% in the United States and Japan. By the end of 2016, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was 77.42 million KW, of which the cumulative installed capacity of distributed power generation was 10.32 million KW, accounting for 13.3%. In Japan and developed countries in Europe and the United States, the proportion of large-scale power stations and household distributed PV is maintained at 1:1, while the proportion of large-scale PV power stations in China is as high as 80%. Since most large-scale power stations are built in remote areas in the northwest, it can not really effectively solve the problem of residential power consumption. Moreover, due to the lag of power construction, the phenomenon of light abandonment occurs frequently and the waste of resources is serious

II. The rapid development of distributed PV is expected in the future, and the policy is the biggest driving force.

at present, the relevant national energy planning has put forward extraordinary development goals for distributed PV. According to the 13th five year plan for electric power development, "by 2020, the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach more than 110million kW and the installed capacity of distributed PV will reach more than 60million kW". In terms of the installed capacity of distributed PV, in 2016, the newly installed capacity was 4.24gw, a year-on-year increase of 200%, with a cumulative installed capacity of 10.32gw. There is still 50gw space from the 2020 planning target. In the next four years, an average of at least 12gw of newly installed capacity will be added each year, which has a huge development space. In order to ensure the realization of the target, the state has issued a series of policies to support it, the most typical of which is the price policy support

at the end of 2016, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on adjusting the benchmark electricity price of onshore wind power for photovoltaic power generation, proposing to reduce the benchmark electricity price of photovoltaic power stations and onshore wind power by resource areas, while the distributed photovoltaic power generation subsidy standard and offshore wind power benchmark electricity price will not be adjusted. After january1,2017, the benchmark electricity prices of new photovoltaic power stations with color bands changed in class I to class III resource areas were adjusted to 0.65 yuan, 0.75 yuan and 0.85 yuan per kilowatt hour respectively, 0.15 yuan, 0.13 yuan and 0.13 yuan lower than the 2016 electricity price per kilowatt hour. The national development and Reform Commission also made it clear that in the future, the photovoltaic benchmark price will be adjusted once a year according to the cost changes. Compared with the reduction of subsidies for ground-based centralized power stations, distributed PV projects are still strong, maintaining the electricity price of 0.42 yuan per kilowatt hour. The profits are relatively rich, which has become the biggest positive factor to promote the rapid development of distributed PV

in addition to price support, relevant departments of the central government have also issued a series of policies to support distributed PV. On february27,2013, Guodian held a press conference to release the "opinions on doing a good job in distributed power generation and service" to the society, which solved the problem of difficulty in distributed photovoltaic. In january2014, the National Energy Administration issued the notice of the National Energy Administration on Issuing the annual new construction scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2014, which determined the new construction scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2014: the total newly added filing scale in 2014 was 14gw, including 8GW distributed. On September 4 of the same year, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on further implementing the policies related to distributed photovoltaic power generation. In order to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic, the policy made major adjustments to its connotation and extension: it can choose one of the modes of "self use, surplus electricity" or "full amount"

in 2014, dozens of policies on promoting distributed PV were issued all over the country, including the attractive 2.8 yuan subsidy price in Xiuzhou, Jiaxing, and the high-profile debut of Jiangxi as the largest province of distributed PV. In 2014, the National Energy Administration issued about 13 policies on the photovoltaic industry, including 5 on distributed photovoltaic

III. the domestic distributed photovoltaic market has a huge space

from the experience of developed countries, the photovoltaic industry has its own development characteristics, and its trend is generally from centralized to distributed development, which is determined by the photovoltaic characteristics

at present, there are some problems in China's photovoltaic market, such as the reduction of electricity price, the curtailment of light consumption, and the gap in renewable energy subsidies, which is expected to exceed 60billion yuan in 2017. These problems continue to accompany with the development of ground-based power stations, and they are difficult to solve in the short term. At the same time, the ground power station is mainly driven by the leader plan, and its installed capacity is relatively limited. Distributed PV is suitable for installation on the roofs of public buildings such as industrial parks, economic development zones, large industrial and mining enterprises, shopping malls, schools and hospitals. Its advantage is that it is close to the user side and has low cost. In addition, photovoltaic on the roof can play a role in heat insulation, which can not only save electricity, but also generate electricity, killing two birds with one stone. It is estimated that China's distributed photovoltaic market will have a carrying capacity of generating 6 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity in the future. Due to a series of factors, more new installed capacity in the future will depend on distributed photovoltaic

in addition, the promotion of power reform on the power distribution side, especially the gradual establishment of power market transactions, will also boost the construction demand of distributed photovoltaic projects. It is expected that the distributed photovoltaic projects promoted by the Energy Bureau for many years will really start to grow rapidly from 2017

for a long time, the rapid growth of the scale of new energy power stations in the West has been a significant contradiction with the lack of trans regional transmission capacity in China. For photovoltaic power stations, the energy administration has made clear the development priorities ahead of time, limited the quota of power stations in the west, and guided the industry towards distribution. At the same time, distributed generation is close to the power load, and conforms to the development direction of intelligent distribution and power consumption. It will become an important direction of domestic photovoltaic development in the future

there is a very important idea in the 13th five year plan, that is, the development of renewable energy pays more attention to the use of nearby consumption and utilization. Distributed photovoltaic fully conforms to this principle and is the direction of future development. Compared with large-scale power stations, the distributed system solves the problem of long-distance transmission and parallel pressure of large-scale power stations. At present, with the promulgation of the national power reform policy and the development of energy interconnection, more and more companies in China are involved in business models from the power consumption side, which can make the power supply side interconnected, and is expected to realize the real implementation of energy demand side management and energy interconnection. With the development of technology, the implementation of energy interconnection, and the weaknesses of distribution, such as unclear business model and difficult electricity collection, will be solved

IV. distributed PV has a high rate of return and prominent investment value.

at present, the state strongly encourages the application of distributed PV and implements the price policy of "basic electricity price + subsidy" for distributed PV projects. Among them, the national subsidy is 0.42 yuan/kwh; Many powerful provinces, cities and counties have introduced local subsidies on the basis of national subsidies

take Shanghai 5KWP solar energy system as an example, with an annual output of 6000 kwh, 30% for self use, and a third step electricity price of 0.977 yuan, the income includes three parts: first, the national and local full subsidies, the national subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kWh, the Shanghai subsidy of 0.4 yuan per kWh, and the annual income of 4920 yuan; The second is the saved self use electricity. The 5kW system can save 1758 yuan per year; The third is the sales electricity of reverse transmission of national electricity. The 5kW system can sell electricity for 1830 yuan per year. All calculations show that the annual income is about 8500 yuan, while the 5kW system investment is about 50000 yuan, and the static return on investment is as high as 17%

in the next few years, with the intensive introduction of national and local policies to solve the dilemma of distributed PV and the gradual implementation of tax incentives, the income of distributed PV projects is expected to be further improved. The increasingly mature market volume of distributed photovoltaic has triggered the influx of enterprises and capital from all walks of life. In the first quarter of 2017 alone, the "roof grabbing" war was in full swing

v. household distributed PV is likely to usher in explosive growth.

as the household distributed PV closest to people's lives, it is the field with the most development potential at present because of its advantages such as quick effect, small investment, simplicity and timely subsidies

first, it is effective. Household photovoltaic power station is the fastest application process, the fastest installation, and the fastest application form to obtain subsidies. It can be seen from the power company that it usually takes only 10 working days for a household power station to obtain the access application opinions. Generally, the whole installation process shall not exceed 3 days, and the acceptance shall not exceed 7 days. Generally, the subsidy payment shall not exceed 3 months. Therefore, the whole process can be completed as soon as 15 days

the second is small investment. In China, most urban villas use a large amount of electricity. However, most villas in China have European roofs with more roofs facing. Therefore, most of the installed capacity is between kWp. Individual large villas or high-rise roofs can be installed above 10kwp; The investment in kWp's solar system is only 10000 yuan. Although the roofs of ordinary rural villas are large, the way of subsidy in China is to use the surplus electricity for self consumption, and the general electricity consumption is not too much. Therefore, the installed capacity of rural roofs is generally kWp. In this way, with an investment of 10000 yuan, rural areas can enjoy the solar energy system

again yes and simple. And as long as the property right certificate is issued to ensure that there is a metering meter installed, the distributed photovoltaic power generation access can be applied for free. At the same time, the power company provides two electricity meters free of charge, with free access to the design. No special access equipment is required for installation, and the inverter can be used to switch the components that meet the national requirements

finally, the subsidy is timely. At present, distributed household power stations are the fastest to receive subsidies among all new energy projects, while large-scale power stations delay the payment of subsidies for more than 24 months, which has seriously affected the enthusiasm and market for solar energy investment and greatly increased the financial risk of investment enterprises. Family projects are generally implemented once every three months, and the longest is no more than six months. This allows all users of solar roofs to see the benefits ★★★ Jinan trial price concessions, I believe in the return on investment of solar energy

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