The most popular view on the demand prospect of po

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According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of China's upholstered furniture in January this year was 25.23 million pieces, an increase of 43% over the same period last year. One month ago, at the 2010 China polyurethane foam and raw material Market Forum held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, Ms. Wang, Secretary General of the sofa Committee of the China Furniture Association, also said that since this year, China's upholstered furniture output value has grown at a high speed, domestic demand is strong, and exports have shown a restorative high-speed growth trend

however, as far as the current situation is concerned, in September, the polyurethane foam enterprises supplying upholstered furniture are not willing to stock up and have such good sales. The peak production season in October seems to be far away from everyone. Of course, this is related to the abundant stock of raw material TDI and soft foam polyether by foam enterprises, but the limited growth of domestic sales and export orders of soft furniture has also greatly inhibited the production and procurement enthusiasm of foam enterprises

Ms. Wang once said that due to the impact of various economic indicators in 2009, the growth rate of production, sales and export (of upholstered furniture) may face a periodic decline in the second half of the year under the complex and changeable economic situation at home and abroad, showing the characteristics of "high in the first place and low in the second". However, most market participants do not seem to agree with this statement, because the peak season of furniture cotton production, which is comparable with previous years, has never occurred this year. So what is the problem? 1. Automatic calibration: the system can automatically calibrate the indication accuracy

first of all, national statistics often only cover Enterprises above designated size. For the foam and upholstered furniture industry with small and medium-sized enterprises as the main body, such statistics will obviously deviate from the true value, which is quite different from the market experience. Ms. Wang said in her speech that China's furniture industry is highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, and some small and medium-sized enterprises' overseas single profits are already approaching the breakeven point, so they slow down to take a single step; Therefore, at present, furniture export orders are mainly short-term and small, while large and long-term orders are further reduced. This is basically consistent with the statement made by a representative in Anji, Zhejiang Province. The person in charge of the enterprise said that% of the software furniture enterprises in Anji rely on the national export tax rebate to survive, and the export orders are being transferred to Vietnam, Malaysia, Africa and other places. In some international trade fairs, buyers have also significantly lowered the prices of Chinese manufacturing industry, making Chinese enterprises disguise themselves at the expense of quality to attract buyers. Such a vicious circle makes it difficult for upstream foam enterprises to obtain long-term stable orders to a certain extent, Thus, the effective demand for raw material TDI and soft foam polyether is restrained

secondly, the substitute of foam is also a factor that can not be ignored. Another person in charge of a furniture enterprise in Zhejiang pointed out that foam accounts for about 20% of the cost of sofa and is the main raw material. In previous years, the high price of TDI forced many enterprises to look for low-cost substitutes. Now many chair and sofa manufacturers are using these substitutes because the price of substitutes is more than 1/3 lower than that of polyurethane foam. In this way, the order of installation lines after maintenance can not be reversed. Although the output of upholstered furniture continues to increase, foam enterprises get a lot less from it

of course, it is not true to say that the upstream enterprises have not benefited from the increase in the output of downstream upholstered furniture. The average price of TDI in the first eight months of this year was roughly the same as that in the same period last year, while the price of soft foam polyether increased by 30%. Therefore, although the market adjusts up and down from time to time, and the market confidence is always pessimistic when it falls, people's feelings do not fully reflect the real situation

therefore, for the fourth quarter of 2010, market participants may not have to sigh too much. Short term market adjustment will not change the overall upward trend of the market. Orders will be concentrated in enterprises with strong risk resistance. The use of substitutes will affect the quality of long-term use of sofas, and it is not a long-term solution. Moreover, as Ms. Wang said, we should not only see the impact of real estate policy adjustment, but also see the rigid demand of ordinary consumers for furniture products. At the same time, we should also be full of confidence in the opportunities brought by China's urbanization process

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